Night Nurse data from Week 5 suggests that influenza cases are still increasing, with a steady rise since Week 1. This aligns with the CDC Week 4 report of wide-spread flu now in 45 states. Although Night Nurse has not concluded that we are at a seasonal peak, we expect to see that peak level over the next 1-2 weeks, as we are likely at or nearing the top of the bell- curve.
Week 5 shows the highest ILI Activity so far this season from Night Nurse data, and I believe this will be validated upon the release of the FluView Report for Week 5.
The CDC reports ILI (Influenza Like Illness) with High activity in 23 states, up from 18 states the previous week.
Moderate activity remains the same at 10 states and Low activity in 13 states, which is up from 8 states the previous week.
DATA BASED ON NIGHT NURSE STATE WIDE REPORTING
Actual Night Nurse statistics from selected states, by above category:
Night Nurse data suggests that influenza has reached its peak in New Hampshire, although after 2-weeks of decline has now shown a slight increase. This indicates that although the peak was reached around Week 2, ILI activity is still present and may not decline quickly. The call volume trend does show a decrease in Week 5, which suggests that both are past peak levels, but may show a resurgence this season. It is recommended to maintain staffing levels, until declines in both trends are more clearly evident.
Connecticut now appears to be at the peak of ILI Activity but also shows a decrease in Call Volume. This suggests that decreases in call volume are likely the result in lessened amounts of non-ILI calls. Decreasing staffing levels should not be undertaken, until both ILI Activity and Call Volume trends suggest declines.
Massachusetts results now show a decline in both ILI Activity and Call Volume. As ILI Activity is at or near the highest levels, this suggests that they are at or just past the bell-curve peak; confirming the previous week assessment. It is recommended to prepare for staffing level decreases, with confirmation in Week 6 results.
Texas data indicates sharp increases in both ILI Activity and Call Volume. This is suggesting a resurgence of both ILI and non-ILI types and that staffing levels should be maintained, with additional on-call support, until new data suggests peak levels are present.
New York area results also indicate a sharp rise of ILI Activity, but it is coupled with a decrease in Call Volume. This suggests that while ILI is still on the rise, non-ILI activity is decreasing. It is recommended to maintain current staffing levels and to watch next week’s results for guidance on decreasing staffing levels.
California results also are mixed. There is still a small, but steady increase in ILI Activity, but these levels have not risen to the percentages seen in other tracked states. There has been a decrease in Call Volume. This suggests that overall California staffing levels may cautiously be decreased, with greater confidence to be determined by Week 6 results
Of the after-hours ILI cases triaged by Night Nurse for the week ending February 2nd (Week 5)
45.7% Were directed to PCP via appointment
36.2% were provided Home-care advice
18.1% were directed to be seen immediately
Night Nurse Total patient call volume Trend
This Call Volume Trend update is provided to show the percentage difference in weekly total after-hours call volume as compared to the seasonal low-volume baseline from August 2018.
Night Nurse closely tracks Total After-Hours triage call volume, as an overall indicator of the level of seasonal illness. The same six-states are tracked here.
It should be noted that Week-1 figures include the high-usage period from the end of the 2018 holiday season.
Trends cautiously suggest that seasonal overall Call Volume may have peaked during Week 4, as levels over baseline have decreased from 37.8% down to 31.5%.
Of the states we are tracking, Texas is the only state to show an increase in Call Volume. Texas also shows and increase in ILI Activity, which suggests a resurgence of both ILI and non-ILI Activity, in this state
All other tracked states suggest that overall Seasonal Illness is on the decline, however, coupled with still elevated or increasing ILI Activity, staffing levels should be maintained, until more definitive illness trends are indicated.
All US regions suggest elevated ILI levels are still present.
I will update these statistics on a weekly basis for the duration of this flu season. If there are any statistics you would like to receive or a state you would like to have us focus for you, please send me a message on Linked-In or from the form on this webpage and I will try to accommodate you.
Feedback is welcome and encouraged. These statistics are for informational purposes only.
Chief Operations Officer
Night Nurse Inc.
508 650 0022